Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rustavi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 12:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.40 | 26.3% | 36.0% | 9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.1% | 26.4% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 44.6% | 37.6% | -7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Rustavi
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Rustavi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GagraDLLDL
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
RustaviLWWWL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GagraRustavi
66.7Attack66.7
77.8Defence77.8
77.8Form100.0
74.7Power85.2
1.75xG1.60