GagravsAragvi Dusheti

Gagra are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWD), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Aragvi Dusheti are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Aragvi Dusheti hold a 38.8-point power-rating edge (7.0 v 45.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.4% in the David Kipiani Cup, while Aragvi Dusheti holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 72% BTTS chance and 71% for over 2.5 goals.