Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gabon · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gabon 2-0 Niger
Original prediction
Gabon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 56.8% | 37.2% | -19.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.5% | 27.9% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 5.46 | 16.7% | 34.9% | 18.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Gabon
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Gabon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GabonLWLDL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NigerWLDLD
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
GabonNiger
0.0Attack66.7
33.3Defence66.7
0.0Form100.0
15.3Power80.3
1.10xG1.49