FYR Macedoniavs
Scotland
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/3/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Scotland · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FYR Macedonia 0-2 Scotland
Original prediction
Scotland
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.38 | 17.2% | 30.7% | 13.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.1% | 28.1% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 56.7% | 41.2% | -15.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Scotland
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Scotland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 0 · GA 9 · avg 0.00/1.80
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00