Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fylkir · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (7%), 3-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fylkir 3-1 Grotta
Original prediction
Fylkir
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 67.7% | 61.3% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.08 | 17.8% | 16.5% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 6.25 | 14.5% | 22.2% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–17%
- 2.3–27%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Fylkir
Probability
61.3%
Model confidence
61.3%
Fylkir has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FylkirWLDLW
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
GrottaLLDLD
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FylkirGrotta
70.4Attack66.7
46.3Defence35.3
63.0Form51.0
59.7Power51.6
3.09xG1.97