Fundación Lara Deportivavs
Aragua FC
COMPLETEDVenezuela · Copa Venezuela · 10/7/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aragua FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1-4 Aragua FC
Original prediction
Aragua FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 18:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.53 | 35.4% | 29.0% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.6% | 25.6% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 37.1% | 45.4% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Aragua FC
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Aragua FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20