Fulham U21vs
Aston Villa U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 9/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fulham U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (8%), 4-2 (7%), 5-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fulham U21 3-3 Aston Villa U21
Original prediction
Fulham U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 48.9% | 68.2% | 19.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.4% | 14.8% | -8.6 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 27.8% | 17.1% | -10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.85 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–18%
- 2.4–27%
- 3.5–17%
Predicted outcome
Fulham U21
Probability
68.2%
Model confidence
68.2%
Fulham U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20