Fukushima Unitedvs
Vegalta Sendai
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 9/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vegalta Sendai · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fukushima United 4-3 Vegalta Sendai
Original prediction
Vegalta Sendai
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.71 | 19.3% | 33.6% | 14.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.5% | 26.6% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 1.59 | 57.2% | 39.8% | -17.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Vegalta Sendai
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Vegalta Sendai has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00