Fukushima Unitedvs
Parceiro Nagano
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 9/26/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Parceiro Nagano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fukushima United 4-3 Parceiro Nagano
Original prediction
Parceiro Nagano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 42.3% | 35.0% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.3% | 27.8% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 30.4% | 37.2% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Parceiro Nagano
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Parceiro Nagano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80