Fukushima Unitedvs
Kitakyushu
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 10/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fukushima United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fukushima United 2-1 Kitakyushu
Original prediction
Fukushima United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.3% | 44.1% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 24.8% | 20.4% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 31.9% | 35.5% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Fukushima United
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Fukushima United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 16 · avg 1.60/3.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40