Fuerte San Franciscovs
Atletico Balboa
COMPLETEDEl-Salvador · Primera Division · 10/25/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Balboa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 0-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fuerte San Francisco 1-2 Atletico Balboa
Original prediction
Atletico Balboa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 38.1% | 32.8% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.1% | 29.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 32.8% | 37.7% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.0–114%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Balboa
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Atletico Balboa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80