Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fátima · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fátima 4-1 Vinhais
Original prediction
Fátima
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.18 | 76.3% | 51.6% | -24.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.46 | 16.5% | 24.1% | 7.6 pts |
| Away | 12.64 | 7.1% | 24.2% | 17.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Fátima
Probability
51.6%
Model confidence
51.6%
Fátima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FátimaLLWWD
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
VinhaisLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 13 · avg 0.40/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
FátimaVinhais
0.0Attack33.3
100.0Defence33.3
33.3Form0.0
45.3Power23.7
1.85xG1.29