Fátimavs
Academico Viseu
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Academico Viseu · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fátima 1-0 Academico Viseu
Original prediction
Academico Viseu
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.55 | 9.5% | 37.7% | 28.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.80 | 18.9% | 24.2% | 5.3 pts |
| Away | 1.26 | 71.7% | 38.1% | -33.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-33.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Academico Viseu
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Academico Viseu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00