FSV Zwickauvs
Erzgebirge Aue
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - Nordost · 10/24/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erzgebirge Aue · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FSV Zwickau 0-3 Erzgebirge Aue
Original prediction
Erzgebirge Aue
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 36.6% | 28.3% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 24.6% | 22.4% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 38.8% | 49.3% | 10.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Erzgebirge Aue
Probability
49.3%
Model confidence
49.3%
Erzgebirge Aue has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40