FSV Mainz 05vs
Werder Bremen
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/24/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FSV Mainz 05 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FSV Mainz 05 2-3 Werder Bremen
Original prediction
FSV Mainz 05
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 54.6% | 52.9% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 23.3% | 21.0% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.30 | 22.1% | 26.0% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–17%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
FSV Mainz 05
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
FSV Mainz 05 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80