FSV Mainz 05vs
SC Paderborn 07
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 8/29/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FSV Mainz 05 · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07
Original prediction
FSV Mainz 05
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 59.8% | 38.1% | -21.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 22.4% | 26.7% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 5.32 | 17.8% | 35.2% | 17.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.23 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
FSV Mainz 05
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
FSV Mainz 05 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 19 · GA 4 · avg 3.80/0.80
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20