FSV Mainz 05vs
Bayer Leverkusen
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/10/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FSV Mainz 05 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen
Original prediction
FSV Mainz 05
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.03 | 31.4% | 37.9% | 6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 25.1% | 24.2% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.19 | 43.5% | 37.9% | -5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
FSV Mainz 05
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
FSV Mainz 05 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00