FSV Mainz 05 IIvs
SSV Ulm 1846
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - SudWest · 10/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SSV Ulm 1846 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FSV Mainz 05 II 1-1 SSV Ulm 1846
Original prediction
SSV Ulm 1846
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.1% | 37.3% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.4% | 22.4% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 35.6% | 40.3% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.65 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
SSV Ulm 1846
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
SSV Ulm 1846 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40