FS Jelgavavs
Riga
COMPLETEDLatvia · Virsliga · 9/19/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-3 (12%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FS Jelgava 0-1 Riga
Original prediction
Riga
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.82 | 11.6% | 8.2% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.16 | 17.5% | 14.2% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 1.27 | 70.9% | 77.6% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–312%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
77.6%
Model confidence
77.6%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FS JelgavaDLWWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
RigaWDDWL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
FS JelgavaRiga
35.6Attack94.4
46.7Defence66.7
35.6Form77.8
40.1Power77.7
0.69xG2.68