FS Jelgavavs
BFC Daugavpils
COMPLETEDLatvia · Virsliga · 10/25/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BFC Daugavpils · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FS Jelgava 0-1 BFC Daugavpils
Original prediction
BFC Daugavpils
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.43 | 20.5% | 27.3% | 6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 24.0% | 29.0% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 55.6% | 43.8% | -11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
BFC Daugavpils
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
BFC Daugavpils has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00