Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Friedberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Friedberg are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Hornau are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Friedberg hold a 40.1-point power-rating edge (72.8 v 32.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 75.9% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Friedberg holds the strongest overall chance at 76% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 84% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Friedberg
Probability
75.9%
Model confidence
75.9%
Friedberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60