Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Friedberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Friedberg are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Fernwald are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Friedberg hold a 24.0-point power-rating edge (72.8 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.3% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Friedberg holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Friedberg
Probability
52.3%
Model confidence
52.3%
Friedberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40