Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Friedberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Friedberg are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Fernwald are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Friedberg hold a 24.0-point power-rating edge (72.8 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.3% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Friedberg holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Friedberg
Probability
52.3%
Model confidence
52.3%
Friedberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80