Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Friedberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Friedberg are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Baunatal are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Friedberg hold a 43.3-point power-rating edge (72.8 v 29.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 61.4% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Friedberg holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Friedberg
Probability
61.4%
Model confidence
61.4%
Friedberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80