GGOALVIO

Germany · 3. Liga · 8/6/2023, 2:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Freiburg II are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.40 conceded, while MSV Duisburg are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and MSV Duisburg hold a 2.0-point power-rating edge (36.7 v 38.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.4% in the 3. Liga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 34% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

34.4%

Model confidence

34.4%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Freiburg IILWLDL

GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MSV DuisburgWLLWW

GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00

BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Freiburg IIMSV Duisburg
32.5Attack36.0
43.9Defence43.0
26.3Form29.8
36.7Power38.7
1.21xG1.14
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