Fredrikstadvs
Sarpsborg 08 FF
COMPLETEDNorway · Eliteserien · 9/13/2026, 5:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fredrikstad · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fredrikstad 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF
Original prediction
Fredrikstad
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 38.2% | 37.6% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.8% | 26.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 35.0% | 35.9% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.47 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Fredrikstad
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Fredrikstad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80