Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Djerv · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (8%), 1-4 (8%), 2-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Førde 1-3 Djerv
Original prediction
Djerv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.20 | 21.4% | 15.9% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.70 | 19.1% | 14.2% | -4.9 pts |
| Away | 1.51 | 59.5% | 69.9% | 10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–38%
- 2.1–48%
- 3.2–37%
Predicted outcome
Djerv
Probability
69.9%
Model confidence
69.9%
Djerv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FørdeLWDLL
GF 13 · GA 14 · avg 2.60/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
DjervWWWWW
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
FørdeDjerv
62.3Attack85.5
26.1Defence56.5
44.9Form72.5
43.8Power71.3
1.72xG3.99