Fratriavs
Spartak Pleven
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Second League · 9/27/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fratria · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Fratria 2-0 Spartak Pleven, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Fratria 3-0 Spartak Pleven
Original prediction
Fratria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 69.7% | 67.3% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.47 | 20.0% | 20.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 8.72 | 10.3% | 12.2% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Projected Score
Fratria 2–0 Spartak Pleven
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Fratria
Probability
67.3%
Model confidence
67.3%
Fratria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FratriaWDDDW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Spartak PlevenWLWLL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FratriaSpartak Pleven
46.7Attack36.7
73.3Defence36.7
63.3Form43.3
63.5Power41.7
2.01xG0.50