Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sunnersta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Franke 1-2 Sunnersta
Original prediction
Sunnersta
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.12 | 14.7% | 11.7% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.45 | 20.3% | 15.8% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 1.39 | 65.0% | 72.5% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
Sunnersta
Probability
72.5%
Model confidence
72.5%
Sunnersta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FrankeLWLLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SunnerstaWLDLW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FrankeSunnersta
54.0Attack77.8
41.3Defence71.4
39.7Form69.8
45.6Power71.5
0.96xG2.77