Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Franke · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (11%), 2-0 (9%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Franke 5-2 Helges
Original prediction
Franke
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 68.0% | 76.1% | 8.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.94 | 18.3% | 13.9% | -4.4 pts |
| Away | 6.60 | 13.7% | 10.0% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–011%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
Franke
Probability
76.1%
Model confidence
76.1%
Franke has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FrankeWWLLW
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
HelgesLLLLD
GF 5 · GA 18 · avg 1.00/3.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FrankeHelges
55.6Attack27.8
43.1Defence8.3
43.1Form13.9
47.9Power19.7
3.45xG0.86