Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
France · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
France 1-1 Italy
Original prediction
France
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 65.7% | 47.7% | -17.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.79 | 19.8% | 26.2% | 6.3 pts |
| Away | 6.56 | 14.5% | 26.1% | 11.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.79 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
France
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
France has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FranceWWWLW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ItalyWLWWD
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FranceItaly
33.3Attack66.7
100.0Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
83.3Power54.2
1.44xG1.04