Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
France · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
France 4-1 Belgium
Original prediction
France
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 64.2% | 43.0% | -21.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.58 | 20.7% | 27.3% | 6.7 pts |
| Away | 6.24 | 15.2% | 29.7% | 14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
France
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
France has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FranceDWWWL
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BelgiumWLWWW
GF 12 · GA 1 · avg 2.40/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
FranceBelgium
33.3Attack55.6
88.9Defence88.9
77.8Form66.7
70.7Power69.4
1.10xG1.06