Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Farsta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Forward 1-2 Farsta
Original prediction
Farsta
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.6% | 37.6% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.5% | 22.8% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 33.9% | 39.6% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Farsta
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Farsta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ForwardLLWDW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FarstaWWWDD
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ForwardFarsta
64.9Attack73.7
59.6Defence63.2
63.2Form63.2
62.7Power65.6
1.57xG1.68