Forward Madisonvs
Sarasota Paradise
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 9/12/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Forward Madison · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (15%), 1-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Forward Madison 1-1 Sarasota Paradise
Original prediction
Forward Madison
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 55.8% | 71.7% | 15.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.2% | 17.4% | -6.7 pts |
| Away | 4.48 | 20.0% | 10.9% | -9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.71 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–015%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.3–011%
Predicted outcome
Forward Madison
Probability
71.7%
Model confidence
71.7%
Forward Madison has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60