Fortuna Sittardvs
Twente
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 10/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Twente · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fortuna Sittard 1-1 Twente
Original prediction
Twente
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.42 | 14.6% | 21.9% | 7.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.06 | 18.6% | 20.2% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.41 | 66.8% | 57.9% | -8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.06 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Twente
Probability
57.9%
Model confidence
57.9%
Twente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80