Fortuna Sittardvs
Excelsior
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 10/25/2026, 11:15:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fortuna Sittard · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Excelsior
Original prediction
Fortuna Sittard
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 40.1% | 48.0% | 7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.8% | 20.6% | -6.2 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 33.1% | 31.4% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–17%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–16%
Predicted outcome
Fortuna Sittard
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Fortuna Sittard has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 6 · GA 15 · avg 1.20/3.00