Fortuna Sittardvs
Ajax
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 9/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fortuna Sittard 1-5 Ajax
Original prediction
Ajax
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.47 | 14.5% | 33.0% | 18.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.07 | 18.5% | 22.5% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 1.40 | 67.0% | 44.6% | -22.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Fortuna SittardWWLWD
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AjaxLWWWD
GF 16 · GA 10 · avg 3.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Fortuna SittardAjax
73.3Attack75.0
40.0Defence58.3
66.7Form58.3
62.3Power62.2
1.96xG1.88