Fortuna Kölnvs
FC Saarbrücken
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 10/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Saarbrücken · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fortuna Köln 0-0 FC Saarbrücken
Original prediction
FC Saarbrücken
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.15 | 28.5% | 31.7% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.7% | 28.0% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 45.7% | 40.3% | -5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.50 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
FC Saarbrücken
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
FC Saarbrücken has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40