Fortuna Düsseldorfvs
Verl
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 10/11/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fortuna Düsseldorf · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-2 Verl
Original prediction
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 52.2% | 41.6% | -10.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.2% | 28.8% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 3.83 | 23.6% | 29.6% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.74 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Fortuna Düsseldorf has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00