Fortuna Düsseldorfvs
MSV Duisburg
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 9/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MSV Duisburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 MSV Duisburg
Original prediction
MSV Duisburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.69 | 33.4% | 26.7% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.1% | 25.7% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 39.5% | 47.6% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
MSV Duisburg
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
MSV Duisburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20