Fortuna Düsseldorfvs
FC Saarbrücken
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 10/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Saarbrücken · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-3 FC Saarbrücken
Original prediction
FC Saarbrücken
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 43.8% | 37.4% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.4% | 23.5% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.93 | 30.8% | 39.1% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
FC Saarbrücken
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
FC Saarbrücken has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80