Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fortis · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fortis 1-2 Goa
Original prediction
Fortis
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.80 | 24.0% | 36.8% | 12.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.3% | 27.4% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 49.7% | 35.8% | -13.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Fortis
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Fortis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FortisLWDDW
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
GoaLDLLD
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FortisGoa
16.7Attack33.3
50.0Defence33.3
50.0Form0.0
42.7Power23.7
1.57xG1.19