Fortaleza ECvs
Nautico Recife
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 10/3/2026, 12:35:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fortaleza EC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Fortaleza EC 0-0 Nautico Recife, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Fortaleza EC 1-1 Nautico Recife
Original prediction
Fortaleza EC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 55.3% | 48.9% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.8% | 29.2% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 4.93 | 18.9% | 21.9% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.62 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.4 pts
Projected Score
Fortaleza EC 0–0 Nautico Recife
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Fortaleza EC
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Fortaleza EC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80