GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 4/26/2024, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Fortaleza EC · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0

Highconfidence

Fortaleza EC are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Boca Juniors are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Fortaleza EC hold a 9.4-point power-rating edge (74.1 v 64.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 62.7% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Fortaleza EC holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Fortaleza EC

Probability

62.7%

Model confidence

62.7%

Fortaleza EC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Fortaleza ECDWWWD

GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Boca JuniorsWDWWW

GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Fortaleza ECBoca Juniors
71.8Attack44.4
74.4Defence77.8
76.9Form66.7
74.1Power64.7
1.81xG0.61
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