Fortaleza ECvs
Athletic Club
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 9/27/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fortaleza EC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Fortaleza EC 0-0 Athletic Club, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Fortaleza EC 2-2 Athletic Club
Original prediction
Fortaleza EC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 59.2% | 47.4% | -11.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.9% | 31.1% | 6.2 pts |
| Away | 5.85 | 15.9% | 21.6% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.72 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.9 pts
Projected Score
Fortaleza EC 0–0 Athletic Club
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Fortaleza EC
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Fortaleza EC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20