Fort Waynevs
Sarasota Paradise
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 10/17/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fort Wayne · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fort Wayne 1-3 Sarasota Paradise
Original prediction
Fort Wayne
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 51.6% | 53.8% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 24.9% | 22.8% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.79 | 23.5% | 23.4% | -0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Fort Wayne
Probability
53.8%
Model confidence
53.8%
Fort Wayne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40