Fort Waynevs
Richmond Kickers
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 9/2/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fort Wayne · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 3-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fort Wayne 2-0 Richmond Kickers
Original prediction
Fort Wayne
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 62.5% | 69.9% | 7.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.34 | 20.8% | 18.3% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 5.38 | 16.7% | 11.8% | -5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.3–010%
Predicted outcome
Fort Wayne
Probability
69.9%
Model confidence
69.9%
Fort Wayne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00