Fort Waynevs
One Knoxville
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 9/16/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
One Knoxville · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fort Wayne 2-3 One Knoxville
Original prediction
One Knoxville
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 39.3% | 36.3% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.4% | 25.7% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 34.4% | 38.0% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
One Knoxville
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
One Knoxville has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00