Fort Waynevs
Forward Madison
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 10/3/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Forward Madison · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fort Wayne 0-0 Forward Madison
Original prediction
Forward Madison
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 42.1% | 33.5% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.4% | 28.6% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 2.77 | 32.5% | 37.9% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.55 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Forward Madison
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Forward Madison has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60