Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Forli · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Forli 1-0 Pianese, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Forli 0-0 Pianese
Original prediction
Forli
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 45.1% | 42.1% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.6% | 30.3% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.45 | 26.3% | 27.6% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Projected Score
Forli 1–0 Pianese
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Forli
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Forli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ForliLDLDD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
PianeseDDWLD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ForliPianese
53.3Attack20.0
46.7Defence66.7
36.7Form26.7
47.1Power40.7
1.16xG0.70